NC State closes out the regular season with a road win at BC. The Pack finishes eighth in the ACC regular season.
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Thread: Georgia Tech

  1. #1
    Administrator Ken Stallings's Avatar
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    Default Georgia Tech

    OK, for NC State's NCAA resume, it comes down to winning at least one of their final two remaining games. The next one up is at home versus Georgia Tech and is certainly among the winnable category. The only thing that would put the Pack on the bubble would be to lose both remaining regular season games and get ousted early in the ACC Tournament. Contrary to the foolish statements by today's ESPN commentator, the Pack does have two or three quality wins. The win against Auburn and Syracuse are Tier one home wins. The loss at Wake is so far the team's only bad loss. Keep it that way, and the Pack has the resume to earn an at-large NCAA bid.

    So, it's there for them. The team just has to seize the opportunity!

    Ken

  2. #2

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    Disagree. We absolutely cannot lose either game. Several bubble teams this past weekend made big wins. We may be on the other side right now. If we lose to a bad GT or BC team, we're done, barring an impressive ACCT.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Nicholson View Post
    Disagree. We absolutely cannot lose either game. Several bubble teams this past weekend made big wins. We may be on the other side right now. If we lose to a bad GT or BC team, we're done, barring an impressive ACCT.
    I disagree. We are #31 in the NET which is the NCAA's measuring stick for tournament teams. But alas, just win and it wont matter.
    "You have to understand, I grew up a NC State fan. Every State-Carolina basketball game, football game, I've been there. It's fun, and if you like to competing and I love competing... that will be extra special."

    Coach Avent

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    Administrator Ken Stallings's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derreck View Post
    I disagree. We are #31 in the NET which is the NCAA's measuring stick for tournament teams. But alas, just win and it wont matter.
    Matt, I just don't know how else anyone can explain this, but Derreck's reply is totally factual. We really are solidly in the field at this point. Joe Lunardi projects us as a 10 seed. That's not bubble territory. Yes, if we stumble at the end, that seed would drop, but right now, we are not a bubble team, we are very much instead above the bubble line.

    One more regular season win puts us at 21 wins and a .500 ACC team. The ACC this year is a very strong conference. One more individual point in our favor is that perhaps our best player (no doubt in my mind) was out for that one bad loss at Wake, and it's not a mere accident that when Markell Johnson returned to good form, we started winning on a more consistent level. We have beaten at least two Dance teams in Syracuse and Auburn, and possibly a third in Clemson. The home loss against Virginia Tech is considered a home tier one loss, and so that's not a bad loss for the NCAA Tournament index, which is what Derreck referenced in his reply.

    Ken

  5. #5

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    I am not nearly as confident. We are squarely on the bubble. Our SOS is crap. We lost to an all-time bad Wake Forest. We have 2 good home wins. 0 good road wins. Our performance against the top ACC teams is very unimpressive. We lose to either GT or BC and we are at the mercy of the basketball Gods. Win both and I 100% agree were in.

    Disaster would be something like multiple scenarios where a team like Buffalo loses their conference tourney and they have to take 2 teams from MAC. We're in real trouble if that happens.

    My prediction: we lose either of the last 2 games, we need to make it to Saturday in the ACC tourney to feel good about being in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Nicholson View Post
    I am not nearly as confident. We are squarely on the bubble. Our SOS is crap. We lost to an all-time bad Wake Forest. We have 2 good home wins. 0 good road wins. Our performance against the top ACC teams is very unimpressive. We lose to either GT or BC and we are at the mercy of the basketball Gods. Win both and I 100% agree were in.

    Disaster would be something like multiple scenarios where a team like Buffalo loses their conference tourney and they have to take 2 teams from MAC. We're in real trouble if that happens.

    My prediction: we lose either of the last 2 games, we need to make it to Saturday in the ACC tourney to feel good about being in.
    I think it is nerve racking because the implementation of the NET is new this year and there is no previous history to judge how the tournament committee will use this information. So no one knows and we do have a weak OOC SOS. However, look at it this way. We are 2-8 in Q1 games. Of those 8 losses, We lost to Duke, UNC (2x), & Virginia (All 3 top 5 teams) FSU, VT, & Wisconsin (top 20), and Louisville (top 30). Thats pretty dang strong group of teams. We are also 5-0 against Q2 teams. So for comparison to say Clemson, they are 1-9 against Q1 teams and 4-3 against Q2 teams. We beat Clemson head to head and are ahead of them in the ACC standings. But Clemson's OOC SOS is 127. So because their OOC SOS is beater do that make them a tourney team over us? I would think not once you start breaking it down, as the committee will no doubtingly do.

    Yes we have an ugly loss to WF, but the committee will also note that MJ was out that game. Frankly, while we really dont have that marquee win, we dont have as many ugly losses as other teams. So (Asside from WF) we have beaten the teams we are supposed to and lost to the teams we were supposed too.
    "You have to understand, I grew up a NC State fan. Every State-Carolina basketball game, football game, I've been there. It's fun, and if you like to competing and I love competing... that will be extra special."

    Coach Avent

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    Administrator Derreck's Avatar
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    We're currently ranked #31 in NET rankings

    We're currently ranked #26 in Sagarin ratings

    We're currently ranked #34 in Kenpom rankings

    We're currently ranked #23 in the ESPN BPI rankings.
    "You have to understand, I grew up a NC State fan. Every State-Carolina basketball game, football game, I've been there. It's fun, and if you like to competing and I love competing... that will be extra special."

    Coach Avent

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    Super Moderator LSmith's Avatar
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    CBS Sports currently has us as the 1rst team out. I don't know. There are a lot of moving parts between now and selection Sunday. You have conferences that usually have 1 automatic bid that may get 2 teams in like the Southern with Wofford and UNCG. Obviously the biggest thing we can do to help our chances is win these next 2 games. The big thing we are playing for is avoiding the #8 vs #9 game in the ACC tourney which would be against Clemson on fresh legs. If we win out and Syracuse loses their final 2 which is very possible against UVA and @Clemson we will more than likely open the tournament with the winner of the #10 vs #15 match up. Regardless if we are a bubble team or not winning out and then a win or 2 in the ACC tourney will most certainly erase any doubts on Selection Sunday.

  9. #9

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    No doubt there is uncertainty with using the new metrics.

  10. #10

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    Perhaps we'll get a high enough seed to host a 1st round game?

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