#13 NC State takes two of three on the road against #15 UNC to finish the regular season with 41 wins!
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Thread: ACC Tournament

  1. #11

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    Unless things happen like PITT winning the ACC, Cal winning the Pac12, or Alabama winning the SEC, we SHOULD be just barely in. St Mary's beating Gonzaga really threw a monkey wrench on the bubble.

    Clemson was an elimination game. I think we're in now. Maybe. But things could happen....

  2. #12
    Administrator Ken Stallings's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Nicholson View Post
    Unless things happen like PITT winning the ACC, Cal winning the Pac12, or Alabama winning the SEC, we SHOULD be just barely in. St Mary's beating Gonzaga really threw a monkey wrench on the bubble.

    Clemson was an elimination game. I think we're in now. Maybe. But things could happen....
    Your logic would have been unimpeachable last year. However, the NCAA has adamantly said that this year the NET will be the primary objective measure by which at large bids will be assigned. Will those on the committee stab the NCAA in the back and go their own way and use the RPI? I doubt it simply because the NET was created by the NCAA and so I don't think the committee would give the NCAA a black eye like that. Joe Lunardi's bracket predictions are not using the NET, which even he admits could be a mistake. Clemson and NC State were in the 30's in the NET prior to today's game. That said, NC State should be higher than the last four in category based upon the NET. Clemson with this loss might well be among the last four in and play in the first round.

    Your other analysis on bracket busters is, of course, on the money. That is the remaining wild card, but likely one that would hurt Clemson.

    All that said, let's start the march now and beat Virginia!

    Ken

  3. #13
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    https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/...227690229.html

    Joe Giglio wrote a good article here comparing our record this year to Kansas State last year. The resume's are nearly identical and Kansas State was a 9 Seed.
    "You have to understand, I grew up a NC State fan. Every State-Carolina basketball game, football game, I've been there. It's fun, and if you like to competing and I love competing... that will be extra special."

    Coach Avent

  4. #14
    Administrator Ken Stallings's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derreck View Post
    https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/...227690229.html

    Joe Giglio wrote a good article here comparing our record this year to Kansas State last year. The resume's are nearly identical and Kansas State was a 9 Seed.
    The huge disparity between the NET and the RPI for NC State is the reason why the NCAA decided to abandon the RPI. Frankly, at this point, the mathematics used in the RPI render it useless as a predictive measure of postseason. The math used in the RPI was altered many times over the years, primarily to advantage mid-major schools in the NCAA selection process. The eyeball test tells me that the NET is a lot more accurate for the Pack than is the RPI. The obsession over non-conference SOS that the RPI uses actually punishes major conference teams by discounting their body of work within a conference loaded with elite teams. On the other hand, it rewards mid-major programs with a raft of cupcakes in their conference, by allowing them to schedule non-conference opponents who are stronger and beat a few.

    My thought is that it is a ridiculous concept that it matters more if you play the #1 team in the nation outside of conference vice inside your conference! NC State did beat Auburn and came real close to beating Wisconsin, two Dance teams. Plus, they beat Penn State, which is a quality team. It is just that the rest of their non-conference opponents were admittedly weak teams. Our quad one record is 3-8. Some use that to bash NC State, while I would respond to ask how many other teams played eleven games against quad one teams?

    Clemson may be the team most harmed by the desire of some to discount the strength of conference opponents. Clemson is a good team. No, not a great team, but a good team and certainly among the top 65 teams in the nation. But, to fairly earn an at large bid, you really have to be among the top 45 of teams, and Clemson may not quite be there. But, they came within a whisker of beating several teams that will be in the tournament field, and that means they are not far below them.

    Ken

  5. #15
    Administrator Ken Stallings's Avatar
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    A modest halftime lead quickly evaporated as Virginia shelled NC State.

    On to the Dance!

    Ken

  6. #16
    Super Moderator LSmith's Avatar
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    To quote a once great coach named Herb, not HWSNBM, but another Herb who coached a pretty good team in 1980, "The legs feed the wolf". The legs did not feed the wolf in the 2nd half today. I will admit I will be sweating a little bit on Sunday. I would be sweating a lot more if we had lost to Clemson. It is what it is. I am most concern on seeing how Keatts builds this program and I believe he is on the right track. Regardless we will be playing at least one more game wherever that may be. There are at least 6 other ACC teams that will not be playing another game. Like I mentioned in the OP in this thread I will probably find out where our next game is nursing a hangover Monday morning and wherever that is and whichever tournament I will pull hard for the Pack.

  7. #17
    Administrator Ken Stallings's Avatar
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    I'm confident we will be selected because again the NET is the NCAA's new baby and the pressure to go with it will be extreme, as in, "You better use it if you ever want to sniff a spot on the selection committee again in your lifetime!" extreme! We are ranked #32 in the NET. Joe Lunardi again admits he isn't indexing his predicted field based on the NET and so I think he's going to have a few misses as a result. But, hey, on Sunday, we'll get to see if I eat crow!

    What concerns me is Braxton Beverly, who has had poor shooting efforts each of the last four games, including today. Going into this season, I thought that Beverly would be a major force for this team. As it is, we won more games than I ever thought we would with him playing below last season's production. I know he's a high character player, and so I'm confident he will stick with the team and work very hard on improving his shot in the off season. What we lacked sorely this year was a true post big man. Omer Yertseven was tailor made to be that kind of player, and he left. He also sat out this season. With the proven ability of Markell Johnson and Torin Dorn to drive and dish, Yertseven would have thrived on this roster this season. He also would have been the true interior presence to detour the kind of screens to allow guards to get layups in the paint against us.

    DJ Funderburk has been a better player than I expected to see from a true freshman. I think if he's willing to put in the work, and stay at least three years, he could gain the strength and polish to become an elite player. But, it takes time for big men to develop and he needs that time.

    Ken

  8. #18

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    DJ Funderburk is not a freshman. He's a transfer.

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Nicholson View Post
    DJ Funderburk is not a freshman. He's a transfer.
    Yep, he never played for Ohio State, but I forgot he transferred to Northwest Florida State, which is a junior college, and played a season for them.

    Ken

  10. #20

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    Aaaaaaand we didn't make the NCAA.

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